ACWR is a conversation starter, not a risk score
Lukas Brandt, S&C Lead
Load monitoring picked up a number and ran with it. You will see ACWR quoted as though a value of 1.6 predicts an injury. It does not, and the research has been fairly clear about that for a while.
What the trials found
A season long randomised trial in youth football planned training by ACWR and found no reduction in injuries against the control group. A study in junior tennis looked at swing count ACWR and found no association with injury. There are also statistical objections to dividing one number by another number that contains it.
Why we still show it
Because it answers a question coaches genuinely need answered: is this week unusual for this athlete. That is worth knowing. A player coming back from three weeks off, or finishing a five match tournament run, is in a different situation to one on a steady block, and the ratio makes that visible in one glance across a squad.
The difference is the sentence you attach to it. Load has jumped, let us look at why, is useful. This athlete has an elevated injury risk, is not supportable. Athlivate will only ever print the first one.